A Much-Needed Reset in Atlanta

The Atlanta Braves enter this offseason in a spot they haven’t been in since the winter of 2018, when they were coming off a surprise NL East title with a ton of young guys and Freddie Freeman.

Counting that 2018 club, that’s nine seasons. In that time, Atlanta has won seven NL East titles and brought home the 2021 World Series, but plenty of Braves fans will tell you it feels unimpressive. Sustained winning at the major league level is exceptionally difficult, so kudos to ATL, but I’d put myself in the fans’ shoes on this one. Over those nine seasons, Atlanta has leaned on a unique strategy of locking up young players to long-term deals, buying out both arbitration and free-agent years. When it hits, it hits. When it misses, you end up with an Austin Riley and Spencer Strider situation.

Braves fans are in an awkward spot. Their GM has brought them seven division titles and a World Series championship, yet it feels almost too reminiscent of Atlanta’s storied past, where they can get to October and that’s about it.

They have won a single (1) postseason series since the World Series title: the NL Wild Card Series over the Phillies this very year (2026). Several first-round exits, a historic offense that went completely missing in the 2023 postseason, and a lack of true top-end spending have left fans wary. (That 2023 team tied the MLB record with 307 home runs and slugged .501, the best mark in AL/NL history. Then it hit .186 in a four-game NLDS loss.)

To be fair, the Braves do spend. They paid the luxury tax in 2023 and 2024. But they spend on in-house players. They don’t go out and get a game-changing free agent, instead opting for those homegrown players to take discounts. Alex Anthopoulos has never stamped his tenure with a signature move in free agency, typically opting for retreads or hoping he can squeeze whatever value he can out of an aging veteran. His biggest free-agent contract to date is Marcell Ozuna’s four years and $65 million.

Here I’m going to lay out how I would approach this offseason, player by player, for the Atlanta Braves.

The money

Before any of the player-by-player calls, here’s the box Anthopoulos is working in. Atlanta’s payroll has climbed from the bottom third of the league to the top ten, and it’s been there every year since 2022.

The Braves started spending. Just not on free agents.Opening Day payroll, 2018–2026 ($ millions)

2018 (21st)$120.5M
2019 (21st)$113.8M
2020 (9th)$149.5M
2021 (14th)$132.5M
2022 (9th)$175.3M
2023 (8th)$193.5M
2024 (6th)$229.3M
2025 (7th)$215.3M
2026 (9th)$246.6M

Source: The Baseball Cube (Opening Day payrolls); MLB rank computed across all 30 teams

Show the data

	Opening Day payroll ($M)
2018 (21st)	$120.5M
2019 (21st)	$113.8M
2020 (9th)	$149.5M
2021 (14th)	$132.5M
2022 (9th)	$175.3M
2023 (8th)	$193.5M
2024 (6th)	$229.3M
2025 (7th)	$215.3M
2026 (9th)	$246.6M

The 2027 starting point

Already guaranteed for 202710 players: $166M
2026 luxury-tax payrollestimate: ~$256M
My 2027 budget estimate(best guess): $235–265M
Labor deal expireslockout expected: Dec. 1

The calendar matters too. Baseball’s labor deal expires Dec. 1, and the industry expects a lockout that freezes signings and trades. Realistically, everything below has to happen between the end of the World Series and Dec. 1.

The rotation

Chris Sale

SP · LHP · turns 38 before Opening Day

Keep: the ace

Contract $27M in 2027; $30M club option for 2028

Year	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	fWAR
2024	29	177.2	2.38	2.09	32.1	6.5
2025	20	125.2	2.58	2.67	32.4	3.6
2026	27	162.2	2.16	2.29	30.9	5.8

Chris Sale is probably the easiest choice on this entire list. He’s been a top-three pitcher in baseball since the Braves got him for next to nothing (Vaughn Grissom) in December 2023. From 2024 to 2026 he’s third in MLB in fWAR and first in ERA among pitchers with 400-plus innings (2.36). It’s a move that has worked out extremely well for AA. Sale is your ace heading into ’27.

Spencer Strider

SP · RHP · 28 in 2027

Trade pile

Contract $22M in 2027 and 2028; $22M club option for 2029 ($5M buyout)

Year	GS	IP	ERA	xERA	K%	fWAR
2022	20	131.2	2.67	2.38	38.3	4.9
2023	32	186.2	3.86	3.09	36.8	5.5
2025	23	125.1	4.45	4.90	24.3	1.0
2026	8	39.0	5.31	3.52	27.9	0.1

Now this is an interesting one. The Braves reportedly floated him at the trade deadline this summer. He was part of a deal for Jacob deGrom that fell through when deGrom wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause.

Strider was lightning in a bottle, and that lightning has run out. It is exceptionally hard to come back from elbow surgery. Strider has had one Tommy John (2019, at Clemson), and in 2024 he opted for an internal brace repair. In ’25 he struggled with a hamstring, and in ’26 an oblique and more elbow trouble limited him to just 39 innings.

His Savant page is a roller coaster. In 2022 his numbers leap off the page: a 38.3% strikeout rate in his first big-league season with a real workload. He followed that up in 2023 by winning 20 games with a scorching 36.8% strikeout rate. It’s been downhill since. He’s lost two full ticks on his fastball since that 2023 season.

Strider's fastball keeps losing a tickAverage four-seam fastball velocity (mph), 2022–2026

mph

95.096.097.098.099.0

20222023202420252026

Season

Source: Baseball Savant pitch arsenals

Show the data

Season	Four-seam velocity
2022	98.2
2023	97.2
2024	96.3
2025	95.5
2026	95.1

His 2025 advanced metrics were not pretty (4.90 xERA). The underlying numbers in his 39 innings this year were better than the 5.31 ERA, but it’s a small sample and nothing you’d bank on. He’s getting paid handsomely for at least two more seasons, with a 2029 club option and a $5 million buyout. The status of his elbow is still up in the air, and Anthopoulos has already said he can’t count on a full season from him. I’m adding him to my trade pile.

Spencer Schwellenbach

SP · RHP · 27 in 2027

Stash

Contract Pre-arbitration (near the league minimum)

Year	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K/BB	fWAR
2024	21	123.2	3.35	3.29	5.52	2.7
2025	17	110.2	3.09	3.25	6.00	2.4
2026	—	DNP	—	—	—	—

This will be a common theme: yet another young Braves starter with elbow issues. This Spencer doesn’t have the huge contract against him, which helps, but a completely lost 2026 hurts. The Braves hoped for a September return that never came; instead he had a screw inserted to stabilize the elbow in late August. Like Strider, he’s not someone you can plan around for 2027, and it’s pushing two years since he last took a big-league mound (June 28, 2025).

When he has pitched, he’s been excellent. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was third-best in baseball in 2025 among pitchers with 100 innings (6.00), and he could locate all six pitches he throws. The Braves will rightfully stash him. No sense in moving off that arm.

Reynaldo López

SP/RP · RHP · 33 in 2027

Move to the bullpen

Contract $8M in 2027 (final year)

Year	G/GS	IP	ERA	xERA	K%	fWAR
2024	26/25	135.2	1.99	3.91	27.3	3.6
2025	1/1	5.0	5.40	—	4.0	-0.1
2026	26/13	79.1	4.54	4.82	21.1	0.6

Hey, another Braves arm with injury troubles. Stop me if you’ve heard that before. AA made a huge gamble in 2024 converting López from reliever to starter, and it worked: a sub-2.00 ERA and his first All-Star appearance sealed it as a great move. He was then reworked into a new deal (quite cheap, I might add): three years and $30 million through 2027.

His ’25 and ’26 seasons have left little to hope for in ’27. In 2025 he had shoulder surgery that wiped out basically his entire year. In 2026 he dealt with knee and shoulder ailments that limited him to a mediocre half season: a 4.54 ERA (4.82 xERA) split between the rotation and the bullpen. His fastball has slipped too, from 95.5 mph in 2024 to 94.1 in 2026, and I’d expect that to continue as he ages.

He’s owed $8 million in ’27, and it feels like that will be an overpay for what he’ll give you. The rotation depth is so thin that it wouldn’t shock me to see AA still trot him out as a starter, but for him to be most effective and stay healthy a full year, I’d make him a reliever. I don’t think the trade value is there. I’d cross my fingers he becomes a great middle-relief option.

Bryce Elder

SP · RHP · 28 in 2027

Inevitable

Contract First year of arbitration; MLB Trade Rumors projects $4.0M

Year	GS	IP	ERA	xERA	K%	fWAR
2024	10	49.2	6.52	4.87	20.4	0.3
2025	28	156.1	5.30	4.73	19.3	0.9
2026	26	149.0	4.11	4.15	19.1	1.2

Bryce Elder has somehow become the most controversial player in Braves Country not named Ronald Acuña Jr. I think everyone roots for him but expects the worst. He’s been a workhorse for ATL up until the end of the ’26 season, when a knee issue (surgery Sept. 8) cut his year short.

Bryce Elder had a very Bryce Elder year:

Good Bryce, bad BryceElder's ERA by stretch, 2025–2026

Last 7 starts of 20252.82
First 11 starts of 20261.97
Final 15 starts of 20265.94

Source: MLB Stats API game logs

Show the data

	ERA
Last 7 starts of 2025	2.82
First 11 starts of 2026	1.97
Final 15 starts of 2026	5.94

The best way I can explain Bryce Elder is that he’s a modern-day Kyle Lohse. You know exactly what you’re going to get: some good, some bad. Is it a hot take to say Elder is a great arm to have in your rotation? He’s NEVER going to be a No. 1, 2 or 3 guy, but as a No. 4 or 5 he’s incredibly durable and every so often pulls a seven-inning, zero-run performance out of his hat. Any contending team would appreciate that arm eating innings in the summer. Braves Country also needs to realize someone like Elder is crucial to keeping a staff healthy, unless you’re the Dodgers and can throw $30 million a year at everyone. The Braves will certainly bring him back.

Grant Holmes

SP/RP · RHP · 31 in 2027

Swingman

Contract Pre-arbitration

Year	G/GS	IP	ERA	xERA	K%	fWAR
2024	26/7	68.1	3.56	3.52	24.8	1.2
2025	22/21	115.0	3.99	4.55	25.0	0.9
2026	31/29	151.2	3.44	5.05	17.9	0.8

Holmes is another who will almost certainly be back, knowing AA. You’d hope it’s only in a swingman role. He was nearly a full-time starter this year and never looked great. His ERA was 3.44, but he gave up tons of loud contact: his hard-hit rate was in the 3rd percentile and his average exit velocity in the 1st, the worst in baseball. His strikeout rate fell dramatically (25.0% to 17.9%) and he’s only getting older. A World Series–hungry Braves team can’t afford him as its No. 3 in the playoffs, and they didn’t trust him as a starter this October either: two relief outings, 2.2 innings. He’ll be back for another 100-plus innings.

Didier Fuentes

SP · RHP · 22 in 2027

Future Star?

Contract Pre-arbitration

Year	G/GS	IP	ERA	xERA	K%	fWAR
2025	4/4	13.0	13.85	7.72	17.4	-0.5
2026	58/1	73.1	2.45	3.15	31.0	2.1

In his end-of-season press conference, AA said Fuentes will come to spring as a starter, which I think is the right move. Fuentes has electric stuff (a 115 Stuff+ from FanGraphs) and had several gutsy performances this postseason, including 3.2 innings of one-run ball in the Game 2 win over the Dodgers. He’s a huge arm to watch, and he’ll likely be capped around 130 innings if he goes into the rotation.

His splitter progressed extremely well throughout the season; he threw it 6.7% of the time, making it a legit third offering. He threw a more vertical breaking ball in ’25 (a curveball, 11.9% usage) that all but vanished in ’26, but I’m willing to bet he brings it back as a show pitch if he starts. Fuentes was elite this year, and the Braves are going to hope he becomes Strider 2.0. He has legit No. 2 potential and will likely open 2027 as their No. 3. (The Braves wouldn’t include him in a Tarik Skubal offer at the deadline, which tells you how they feel.)

AJ Smith-Shawver

SP/RP · RHP · 24 in 2027

Move to the bullpen

Contract Pre-arbitration

Year	G/GS	IP	ERA	xERA	K%	BB%
2025	9/9	44.1	3.86	6.27	21.9	10.9
2026	9/5	31.1	6.61	4.82	18.8	11.1

I think AJSS just is who he is. His stuff hasn’t impressed me, and if you’re walking 10% or more of the batters you face, you’d better be striking out at least 30%. He’s at about 19% K rate. He’s 24, has dealt with injury issues (elbow reconstruction in 2025), and struggles mightily to find the plate. FanGraphs’ Stuff+ grades his arsenal above average (105), but you still have to throw strikes for “stuff” to matter. It may be early, but I’d move him to a full-time, max-effort relief role: one inning, max. He made four relief appearances this year, mostly as a multi-inning guy. I’d bite the bullet and hope his stuff plays up into a high-leverage reliever.

JR Ritchie

SP · RHP · 24 in 2027

Spot Starter

Contract Pre-arbitration

Level	IP	ERA	xERA	K%	BB%
MLB 2026	73.1	4.91	5.16	20.9	13.2
AAA 2026	82.1	3.17	—	26.2	10.9

Ritchie is another young Braves arm who can’t find the zone. Whether that’s because he can’t, or because he’s worried about what happens when he does, I’m unsure. He had a strong spring that had people thinking he was the next Schwellenbach. It didn’t pan out. His walk rate (13.2%) was in the 5th percentile, and if he can’t hone that in, his stuff isn’t good enough to get him out of jams. He’s still young, and he’ll get a few shots next season to prove himself.

Owen Murphy

SP · RHP · 23 in 2027

Depth

Contract Pre-arbitration

Level	IP	ERA	K%	BB%
MLB 2026	12.0	6.00	16.1	5.4
AAA 2026	96.2	3.07	24.2	8.7

We saw very little of Murphy this season, and what we did see wasn’t great. He was called up partly to fill a rotation need and partly because of his solid year at Triple-A Gwinnett. He’s young and will need to sharpen his command to have an outside shot at a handful of starts in 2027.

Hurston Waldrep

SP · RHP · 25 in 2027

Out: Tommy John

Contract Pre-arbitration

Year	G/GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	fWAR
2025	10/9	56.1	2.88	3.21	24.0	1.2
2026	3/2	10.2	8.44	8.44	16.1	-0.3

It’s hard to judge Waldrep’s year, given the elbow trouble coming in and the Tommy John surgery that ended it (announced Aug. 28). He’ll miss most, if not all, of 2027. Hopefully he brings his 2025 form into 2028.

Tyler Mahle

SP · RHP · 32 in 2027 · free agent

Re-sign: 3 yrs / $60M

Contract Free agent; can't receive a qualifying offer. Spotrac market value: $21.8M a year

Team	GS	IP	ERA	FS%	FC%
2026 SF	18	94.2	5.13	25.1%	17.6%
2026 ATL	9	54.1	1.99	38.5%	9.7%
Postseason	2	13.1	1.35	—	—

Mahle came over from San Francisco at the deadline, and the Braves had him lean on his splitter and push the cutter into the background as more of a “show” pitch. Boy, did it work. Mahle was the best starting pitcher, stats-wise, of anyone acquired at the deadline:

Mahle outpitched every deadline starter, Skubal includedERA after the trade, starters acquired July 1–Aug. 5, 2026 (min. 4 starts with new team)

Tyler Mahle (ATL)1.99
Lake Bachar (PIT)2.57
Tarik Skubal (LAD)2.61
Freddy Peralta (TB)3.25
Dean Kremer (MIN)3.48
Kevin Gausman (CHC)4.83
Robbie Ray (SD)5.02
Dustin May (MIL)5.65
Casey Mize (SD)7.46

Source: MLB Stats API transactions and splits

Show the data

	ERA with new team
Tyler Mahle (ATL)	1.99
Lake Bachar (PIT)	2.57
Tarik Skubal (LAD)	2.61
Freddy Peralta (TB)	3.25
Dean Kremer (MIN)	3.48
Kevin Gausman (CHC)	4.83
Robbie Ray (SD)	5.02
Dustin May (MIL)	5.65
Casey Mize (SD)	7.46

He had a great postseason as well: 13.1 innings, one earned run per start, against the Phillies and Dodgers. He isn’t eligible for a qualifying offer this offseason, so he’s a true free agent. Health has limited him in recent years (12.2 innings in 2024, 86.2 in 2025), which works in the Braves’ favor at the negotiating table. AA doesn’t make deals for superstars, and Mahle isn’t one, so I can see this getting done. Spotrac pegs his market value around $21.8 million a year, about the going rate for an arm like his.

The Braves have to get out of this circus of praying a young arm or a veteran can carry them. It’s been a constant detriment the past few seasons. I’d offer Mahle three years and $60 million and make him the No. 2. He proved he’s willing to change his approach, and he proved he can get elite postseason lineups out. Pull the trigger.

Martín Pérez

SP · LHP · 36 in 2027 · free agent

Re-sign: 1 yr / $5M

Contract Free agent. Spotrac market value: $6.5M

Year	GS	IP	ERA	xERA	K%	fWAR
2024	26	135.0	4.53	5.44	18.1	0.5
2025	10	56.0	3.54	5.37	19.3	0.8
2026	26	142.0	3.04	4.51	17.1	1.5

Pérez had quite the year for ATL: a veteran in every sense of the word, providing quality innings for a rotation that badly needed them. He’ll be 36 in ’27, the clubhouse loves him, and he shouldn’t cost more than about $5 million. I’d toss him a one-year, $5 million deal to eat innings at the back of the rotation. Regression is coming, but even if he regresses to his expected numbers, that’s still a 4.50 ERA from your No. 5.

The bullpen

Robert Suarez

RP · RHP · 36 in 2027

Keep: the new closer

Contract $16M in 2027 and 2028

Year	G	IP	ERA	FIP	SV	fWAR
2024 SD	65	65.0	2.77	3.49	36	0.9
2025 SD	70	69.2	2.97	2.88	40	1.9
2026 ATL	33	34.0	1.06	2.48	4	0.9

Under contract through ’28. He’ll be back. Elite reliever. Not much to say here: he had a 0.56 ERA in his first 31 games before elbow inflammation cost him three months, and he should take over the closer role.

Raisel Iglesias

RP · RHP · 37 in 2027 · free agent

Let him walk

Contract Free agent (made $16M on a 1-year deal in 2026)

Year	G	IP	ERA	xERA	BB%	SV
2024	66	69.1	1.95	2.27	5.0	34
2025	70	67.1	3.21	3.14	6.0	29
2026	59	60.0	2.55	3.50	7.1	34

Anthopoulos says he’ll talk with all of his free agents, and he brought Iggy back on a one-year deal last winter, but I’m not sure I would. He’ll be 37, and although his numbers have been great, it just feels like time to move on. His underlying numbers are creeping up (his xERA has risen every year) and age doesn’t help pitchers. Suarez should take over the ninth. I’d let Iggy walk unless he took a significant pay cut, which isn’t happening.

Dylan Lee

RP · LHP · 32 in 2027

Keep: bounce-back

Contract Arbitration; MLB Trade Rumors projects $4.2M

2026	G	IP	ERA	K%	BB%
Before All-Star break	44	43.0	1.47	34.0	4.5
After All-Star break	27	24.0	6.00	22.6	9.4
Full season	71	67.0	3.09	29.4	6.5

Lee fell hard in the second half. I’d argue he’s been one of the best lefty relievers in baseball the past three seasons (seventh in fWAR among them), and he was remarkably consistent until that rough second half. I think he’ll bounce back just fine, and the underlying data agrees: his whiff rate was in the 98th percentile and his xERA in the 96th. The Braves need him to.

James Karinchak

RP · RHP · 31 in 2027

Tender, then AAA depth

Contract Arbitration; projected $1.1M

Year	G	IP	ERA	FIP	BB%
2026	9	9.2	1.86	4.34	13.5

I’d assume ATL brings him back. He was good in limited action with the big-league club, and he’s a fiery personality I’d like to keep around, especially this cheap.

Quick hits on the rest of the arms:

Pitcher	2026	My call
Michael Grove (RHP, 30)	7.0 IP for Tampa; claimed off waivers 9/15	AAAA guy. Nothing more
Joey Wentz (LHP, 29)	Missed the season (torn ACL in spring)	Non-tender. A non-factor for a contender
Danny Young (LHP, 33)	12.1 IP, 8.03 ERA after elbow reconstruction	Not worth the 40-man spot
Brent Suter (LHP, 37)	91.0 IP, 3.36 ERA (1.63 in Atlanta)	A unicorn who lobs it in and gets outs, but there’s no spot for him. Let him walk
Joe Jiménez (RHP, 32)	Didn’t pitch; last MLB game Oct. 2, 2024	The three-year deal never worked out. Cut ties
Dylan Dodd (LHP, 29)	49.2 IP, 2.54 ERA	Back. Pitched well, dirt cheap
Victor Mederos (RHP, 26)	34.1 IP, 3.41 ERA	Back. Triple-A depth
Ray Kerr (LHP, 32)	18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA	Back. Postseason hero: 6 scoreless innings in the two Braves wins
Blake Burkhalter, Rolddy Muñoz, Tyler Uberstine	MiLB	All back as depth

AA has always spent well on the bullpen. This is the year to put that money elsewhere. Use Suarez and Lee in high leverage and find one of the remaining guys who can step into that role.

Behind the plate

Drake Baldwin

C · bats L · 26 in 2027

Extend: Blue Box Time

Contract Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2030

Year	Slash	HR	wRC+	xwOBA
2025	.274/.341/.469	19	126	.353
2026	.284/.358/.459	25	126	.370

It’s time for AA to “Blue Box” Drake Baldwin. That’s what Braves Country calls it, after the blue graphics the team posts when it signs a player long-term. Baldwin has done it all since debuting in ’25: 2025 NL Rookie of the Year, 2026 All-Star. He hits for average, he slugs, and he’s good enough behind the plate for a young catcher. It’s extremely rare to get this level of production from a young catcher, and his expected numbers show no sign of slowing down (his expected slugging was in the 96th percentile).

Catchers don’t age well, and Baldwin caught 89 games this year with another 61 at DH. Going forward, he needs to catch 130 a year. That’s a big jump, but he’ll be paid for it. It’s nice to have the double-catcher option, but the Braves need to use the DH spot like the other 29 teams and stop rotating catchers through it.

My offer: six years and $100 million, plus a 2033 club option, backloaded. That runs through his age-31 season, or age-32 if the option is picked up.

Season	Salary
2027	$10M
2028	$10M
2029	$15M
2030	$15M
2031	$25M
2032	$25M
2033	$25M club option
Guaranteed	$100M

For comparison, Cal Raleigh got six years and $105 million from Seattle in March 2025. That deal also bought out three arbitration years plus three free-agent years at $23 million apiece.

Sean Murphy

C · bats R · 32 in 2027

Trade pile

Contract $15M in 2027 and 2028; $15M club option for 2029

Year	Slash	HR	wRC+	fWAR
2023	.251/.365/.478	21	130	5.0
2024	.193/.284/.352	10	79	0.9
2025	.199/.300/.409	16	97	2.0
2026	.182/.256/.300	3	55	0.0

This is a stain on AA’s résumé. Every GM has deals he wishes he could pull back, but with every William Contreras homer in Milwaukee, this one ages worse. Atlanta landed Murphy in a three-team trade in December 2022 that sent Contreras to the Brewers:

Murph v Wild BillfWAR by season, 2023–2026

William Contreras (MIL)
Sean Murphy (ATL)

fWAR

0.02.04.06.0

2023202420252026

Season

Source: FanGraphs

Show the data

Season	William Contreras (MIL)	Sean Murphy (ATL)
2023	5.8	5.0
2024	5.5	0.9
2025	3.7	2.0
2026	3.0	0.0

Murphy is oft-injured and often underproducing, and he’s been a huge miss since his 2023 All-Star campaign. His ’25 was decent enough, but it’s hard to get excited about it at $15 million a year when he’s taking reps from Baldwin. This 2026 was a hip labrum repair followed by a broken finger. He’s an immediate add to the trade pile. Catching depth is exceptionally rare in MLB, so Murphy should have some value. ATL needs to cut ties.

Jonah Heim

C · switch-hitter · 32 in 2027 · free agent

Sign as the backup

Contract Free agent (signed for $1.25M in 2026)

2026	PA	Slash	HR	OPS
vs. RHP	231	.160/.221/.250	3	.471
vs. LHP	159	.267/.321/.534	10	.855

Jonah Heim is a name I want to bring back as Murphy’s replacement. He switch-hits and caught this Braves staff to start the year before Atlanta moved him in May. He should only be asked to catch 40 to 50 games, giving Baldwin some relief, and he should be exceptionally cheap. The split above tells you which 40 to 50: Heim crushed lefties in 2026, and Baldwin didn’t (.695 OPS vs. LHP).

The infield

Matt Olson

1B · bats L · 33 in 2027

Keep: the anchor

Contract $22M a year through 2029; $20M club option for 2030

Year	G	Slash	HR	wRC+	fWAR
2024	162	.247/.333/.457	29	118	2.7
2025	162	.272/.366/.484	29	136	4.7
2026	162	.251/.321/.502	41	122	4.0

Olson is Mr. Iron Man. His consecutive-games streak dates to May 2021, passed Stan Musial for eighth all-time in August, and he played all 162 again. He was clearly not right to end this season, and it showed: a .633 OPS in September and 4-for-27 in the playoffs. But when he’s healthy, he’s one of the top first basemen in the league; only Pete Alonso had more fWAR at the position this year. His defense is exceptional (97th percentile in Outs Above Average), and I expect him to win another Gold Glove this winter. His bat is equally exceptional. He’s the anchor this lineup needs.

Ozzie Albies

2B · switch-hitter · 30 in 2027

Pick up the option

Contract $7M club option for 2027, no buyout

Year	Slash	HR	wRC+	fWAR
2024	.251/.303/.404	10	96	1.3
2025	.240/.306/.365	16	87	1.4
2026	.237/.293/.392	22	86	1.0
Postseason	6-for-24	2	—	—

Twenty-homer second basemen don’t grow on trees; only six hit 20 in 2026, and Ozzie was one of them. He’s another who has dealt with injuries and typically fades late (a .575 OPS after the All-Star break this year). But he had a good enough postseason, with two homers in seven games, to warrant picking up that exceptionally cheap option. He should, and will, be the Braves’ starting second baseman in 2027. He’s a major force in the clubhouse and will be treated as such. I wouldn’t be shocked to see No. 1 retired at Truist Park one day. His production is middling these days, but if this offense weren’t so strung together, he’d be a great 7- or 8-hole hitter.

Austin Riley

3B · bats R · 30 in 2027

Keep (no choice)

Contract $22M a year through 2032 ($132M left); $20M club option for 2033

Year	G	Slash	HR	wRC+	fWAR
2024	110	.256/.322/.461	19	117	2.5
2025	102	.260/.309/.428	16	104	1.7
2026	159	.219/.290/.364	19	81	1.0

Yikes. Riley’s OPS has dropped five straight years. By one count (Newsweek’s), he’s only the 23rd live-ball-era player to do that, and the youngest. Time to bounce back hopefully?

Five straight years of declineAustin Riley's OPS by season, 2021–2026

OPS

0.6000.7000.8000.900

202120222023202420252026

Season

Source: MLB Stats API

Show the data

Season	OPS
2021	0.898
2022	0.877
2023	0.861
2024	0.783
2025	0.737
2026	0.654

There’s very little to be excited about. His defense has gotten better as he’s aged (82nd percentile in Outs Above Average), which is odd, but everything else is worse. We’re bordering on worst-contract-of-the-2020s territory, and the Braves still owe him $132 million. He homered in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, then went 0-for-15 to finish October. He can’t be relied on in any capacity.

Trading him feels impossible unless you attach prospects or eat a chunk of his money, and I don’t see the Braves doing either. I find it hard to believe any team would even pick up the phone, though someone may think they can fix him. It would be a massive gamble for that GM. Simply put, Riley has to figure it out. He’s the richest Brave of all time and is playing like a replacement-level player. He batted seventh or eighth in 73 of his starts this season, which is unacceptable for a run-producing position and a run-producer’s salary. Something has to give. If nobody wants him and he plays at this rate again, the Braves may eventually be forced into something drastic. It’s hard to even contemplate cutting someone owed this much, but he’s a black hole if nothing changes. For this exercise, Riley stays. I don’t see any way a trade gets done.

Mauricio Dubón

SS/UT · bats R · 32 in 2027 · free agent

Re-sign: 2 yrs / $24M

Contract Free agent. Spotrac market value: $11.6M a year

Year	Slash	HR	wRC+	fWAR
2024 HOU	.269/.296/.361	4	87	1.1
2025 HOU	.241/.289/.355	7	80	2.2
2026 ATL	.276/.321/.399	12	99	2.4

Dubón is a BALLPLAYER in every sense of the word. If you had nine Dubóns in your lineup, you’d probably find a way into the postseason. He does the little things right and plays elite defense at several positions: two Gold Gloves as a utility man and hunting his third this offseason, 91st percentile in Outs Above Average this year, 62 games at short and 85 in left. He’ll be a little pricey this winter, probably $10 to $12 million a year for two to four years. The shortstop class is rough, and you need to stick with Dubón. I’d give him two years and $24 million if he’d take it. That steadies a shortstop spot that’s been a revolving door since Dansby Swanson left, and it gives your arms elite defense behind them. He’s a massive clubhouse favorite, and I think he sets the tone for the infield.

Shortstop	2026	My call
Ha-Seong Kim (31)	.116/.219/.140 in 147 PA, a 7 wRC+ (lowest in MLB, min. 140 PA), on a $20M deal	Gone, mercifully
Jim Jarvis (26)	.207/.267/.297 in MLB; .296/.392/.431 at Triple-A	Depth if Dubón goes down. Most of ’27 in Triple-A

Kim was historically bad this season and got paid $20 million to do it. He won’t be back. Jarvis showed some flashes when he debuted (9-for-30 in his first 10 games), but I don’t think he projects as an everyday big-league starter.

The outfield

Ronald Acuña Jr.

RF · bats R · 29 in 2027

Pick up the option, then trade

Contract $17M club option for 2027 ($10M buyout); $17M club option for 2028

Year	Slash	HR	SB	wRC+	fWAR
2024	.250/.351/.365	4	16	106	1.0
2025	.290/.417/.518	21	9	162	3.5
2026	.255/.345/.451	20	21	120	1.8

All right. Here’s the reason you clicked on this article. You may have scrolled straight to this name to see where I stand. Here it is… drumroll… I think you have to trade him. There are several reasons, so I’ll list them with their usual counterpoints.

He’s hurt. A lot. Like, a lot a lot. He has two surgically repaired knees (right ACL in 2021, left ACL in 2024), Achilles issues in 2025, and a left hamstring that put him on the IL twice this year. Simply put, he doesn’t play often. “He’s great when he’s not hurt!” Yes, I know! He’s pretty good! But a long time ago I was taught that your best ability is availability, and he’s simply never available. When he runs into a stretch of poor performance, you hear, “Well, yeah, he’s coming back from an injury!” The issue is that it’s two or three times a year. He is not a reliable option.

He’s disappeared in October. His signature playoff moment came in 2018: a grand slam off Walker Buehler in Game 3 of an NLDS the Braves lost. He was the youngest player ever to hit a postseason slam. Since 2020, he’s only been healthy for the 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2026 postseasons.

Postseason	G	H-AB	HR	RBI
2020	12	10-46	1	3
2022	4	5-15	0	0
2023	4	2-14	0	0
2026	7	3-24	0	0
Total	27	20-99 (.202)	1	3

One homer and three RBIs in 27 games. It gets hard to make excuses. “Small sample size.” “Injured.” “Not going right.” None of it matters to me at this point. He disappears in the postseason, and until he doesn’t, it’s hard to believe he can be his regular-season self in October. Ronald Acuña Jr. hasn’t recorded a playoff RBI since Oct. 17, 2020. That’s six years.

The attitude. Love the guy or not, it’s undeniable that some effort-or-attitude controversy sparks up once or twice a year. Acuña is 28 and will be 29 next season, and it’s hard to ignore that he hasn’t matured in some areas. His passion for the game is undeniable, but there are too many times you see him lazily chase a ball into the corner or not run out a ball in the gap. I understand the psychological worry about running hard on two surgically repaired knees, but see my first point: if you’re too injured to play, you’re too injured to play. It isn’t an excuse.

Here’s the anecdote that explains why I’m even raising this point after dwelling on it. I was at NLDS Game 4, when the Braves were eliminated by Los Angeles. I sat down the right-field line and spent most of the night watching him. He’d been awful all postseason, had already come up empty with a runner in scoring position, and two moments really irked me.

First, he drew a walk with two outs in the fifth inning of a 1-1 game. On his walk down the first base line, extremely slow, as Acuña typically does, he started taking off his gear one piece at a time. The bat boy walked alongside him with his hands out. Acuña took off his elbow guard and dropped it on the ground, right past the outstretched arms of the bat boy. Then he bent down, unstrapped his leg guard and did the same thing before slowly finishing his walk to first. It’s something small, but it stood out. He hadn’t been going right at the plate, and seemingly ignoring the bat boy, making him bend over to pick up the gear, didn’t sit right with me.

Later, in the seventh, he came up again with a runner on second, the Braves down 3-1, and grounded out to end the inning. He was clearly frustrated. The boos came down, maybe for the first time in his career, and he went into the dugout. He didn’t leave it. As the inning-break clock wound under 20 seconds and whoever the Dodgers hitter was had begun prepping to step into the box, Acuña still hadn’t come out. Ozzie Albies walked back to the dugout, presumably to tell him something, and that finally got Acuña back out to right to finish the game. It’s things like that that stick out. It’s as if he still has years of growing to do in mental toughness, and the Braves can’t afford to wait.

I think I’ve seen enough of No. 13 in Atlanta. The Braves should pick up his option, then pick up the phone and see what deal they can work. He’ll have value.

Michael Harris II

CF · bats L · 26 in 2027

Locked in

Contract $9M a year through 2030; club options for 2031–32

Year	Slash	HR	wRC+	fWAR
2024	.264/.304/.418	16	99	2.0
2025	.249/.268/.409	20	83	1.4
2026	.294/.321/.491	26	121	4.5
Postseason	11-for-27	1	—	—

Michael Harris was pretty much the only Braves bat not named Ozzie Albies that showed up in the postseason. He hit .407. He led Braves position players in fWAR (4.5), and his center-field defense was in the 98th percentile. He’s locked up for a while, and rightfully so.

Mike Yastrzemski

LF · bats L · 36 in 2027

Platoon LF

Contract $10M in 2027; $7M club option for 2028 ($4M buyout)

Year	Slash	HR	wRC+	fWAR
2024 SF	.231/.302/.437	18	107	1.7
2025 KC	.233/.333/.403	17	106	2.4
2026 ATL	.224/.309/.380	12	92	0.6

Yaz will be on this team next year, and it’s a bummer. He was extremely meh this season and never found any solid form. He costs $10 million and I doubt the Braves can move him. He’ll be the platoon left fielder against righties again.

Jurickson Profar

LF/DH · switch-hitter · 34 in 2027

Keep him for now

Contract $15M in 2027 (final year)

Year	Slash	HR	wRC+	Note
2024 SD	.280/.380/.459	24	139	All-Star
2025 ATL	.245/.353/.434	14	123	80-game ban
2026	—	—	—	162-game ban

Profar is another attitude issue in this outfield. There’s not much to say that hasn’t already been said. Failing two drug tests and missing about a season and a half (80 games in 2025, all of 2026) is shameful. It’s a toss-up whether the Braves release him outright or try to salvage some of the $15 million he’s owed for 2027. In my world, we hang on to him for now. You owe him the money either way, so you may as well see if he can do anything before eating it.

Depth piece	2026	My call
Brewer Hicklen (31)	.302/.373/.520 at Triple-A	Back as AAAA depth
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. (30)	40 steals at Triple-A	Back as AAAA depth
Lane Thomas (31)	46 PA in Atlanta, then a rib-cage strain	Underwhelming. Let him walk
Dominic Smith (32)	.896 OPS in April, .770 in May, never above .620 after	Started hot, faded. Let him walk
Rowdy Tellez (32)	11 PA	Let him walk
Kyle Farmer (36)	19 PA	Let him walk

The farm

The Braves’ system ranked 21st in MLB Pipeline’s midseason update, its best ranking since 2021. Here’s who matters for 2027:

Prospect	2026	2027 outlook
Eric Hartman (OF, No. 1)	26 HR, 56 SB; .182 in his first 157 Double-A PA	Settles in at Double-A. No 2027 splash unless he rockets
Cam Caminiti (LHP, No. 2)	114.2 IP, 3.38 ERA; 2.01 at Double-A	Real chance to debut this summer. The Braves need a good lefty arm
Tate Southisene (SS, No. 3)	.278/.408/.467, 45 SB	Big year, but years away
AJ Gracia (OF, No. 4)	2026 first-round pick (No. 9 overall)	Not a 2027 factor
Alex Lodise (SS, No. 5)	28 HR, reached Double-A	Sneaky internal option. Trade chip
John Gil (SS, No. 9)	60 SB, .315 at Double-A	Not a 2027 factor. Trade chip
Luke Sinnard (RHP, No. 13)	52 IP, 2.94 ERA	Shot at the majors
Patrick Clohisy (OF, No. 16)	.340/.420/.483 at Triple-A	Shot at the majors. Trade chip
Davis Polo (RHP)	129 IP, 3.00 ERA, 140 K, mostly Low-A	Add to the 40-man before the Rule 5 deadline

Caminiti has been great at every full-season level. After Fuentes was rushed and struggled in 2025, I could see the Braves being scared to do the same with Caminiti, but if he keeps performing it’ll be hard to turn down that extra arm this summer. Polo is Rule 5–eligible if he isn’t protected by Nov. 17. Any contribution from Lodise, Sinnard or Clohisy would be a bonus, and to facilitate the deals below, Lodise, Gil and Clohisy are my trade bait.

The trades

Every trade here is my own proposal so keep that in mind. For each one I asked a simple question: why would the other team actually do it?

Proposed trade

Braves ⇄ Seattle Mariners

Atlanta sends

Ronald Acuña Jr.RF, after the $17M option is picked up; 2028 option too

Atlanta gets

Logan GilbertRHP, 2024 All-Star; 186 IP, 3.73 ERA in 2026; ~$15.4M final arbitration year
Lazaro MontesOF, 22, bats L; 38 HR in the minors in 2026; MLB Pipeline Top 100

The money Roughly even for 2027 (−$17M out, about +$16.2M in)

Why Seattle says yes

Seattle’s offense struggled all year (27th in batting average and 28th in slugging as of July), and Randy Arozarena (151 wRC+) is a free agent and likely gone. Acuña gives them two years of a potential MVP bat for $17 million a year instead of a three-to-five-year deal to keep Arozarena.
Reports say they have “money to spend and pitching to trade.” Gilbert is gone after 2027 anyway, and Kade Anderson, the No. 5 prospect in baseball, is “big-league-ready,” so he can step right into Gilbert’s spot.
Anyone trading for Acuña is banking on a return to MVP form, and should probably plan on him at DH most days to keep his legs fresh.

It would be a sizable ask, but I think it can be deemed fair. Montes gives the Braves a young bat with serious pop (and swing-and-miss), and Gilbert bolsters the rotation and could become a trade-and-sign extension candidate. This entire trade is contingent upon how MLB front offices view Ronald.

Proposed trade

Braves ⇄ Chicago White Sox

Atlanta sends

Spencer StriderRHP; $44M left over 2027–28 plus a $5M buyout
Alex LodiseSS, Braves No. 5 prospect
CashAtlanta pays $7M of the remaining deal ($3.5M in each of 2027 and 2028)

Atlanta gets

Pierce GeorgeRHP, White Sox No. 18 prospect; 70-grade fastball; 30.1% K in 2026, reached Triple-A

The money About −$18.5M in 2027 and roughly −$42M overall

Why Chicago says yes

Figuring out the rotation is the White Sox’s “priority this winter” (per ESPN). They just went from 102 losses to the ALDS and should be building around their young core.
They’ve taken on damaged goods twice this year (Jordan Hicks in February, Luis Castillo in August), and AA has dealt with them before (the Aaron Bummer trade in 2023).
Strider showed decent underlying metrics before he was shut down (3.52 xERA). If he finds his form, he’s a postseason arm for them, and Atlanta is paying a top-10 prospect and some cash for the privilege.

Strider has a far better track record than Hicks, and adding a top-10 prospect plus some money should bring back a half-decent prospect. The price to move him with Lodise might make some GMs just hold on and pay him out. But if the Acuña deal goes through, Strider’s money is exactly what pays Gilbert in a trade and extend deal.

Proposed trade

Braves ⇄ New York Yankees

Atlanta sends

Sean MurphyC; $15M in 2027 and 2028
Patrick ClohisyOF, Braves No. 16 prospect

Atlanta gets

Fernando CruzRHP reliever, 37 in 2027; 3.13 ERA, 11.0 K/9 in 2026; arbitration-eligible

The money About −$12.5M in 2027 and about −$27M overall (no money retained)

Why New York says yes

Brian Cashman said in July that catcher had “become an area of concern, clearly.” The Yankees chased Ryan Jeffers at the deadline but didn’t add a big-league catcher. Austin Wells, a lefty bat, kept starting.
Murphy is a right-handed bat on a two-year commitment with no draft-pick cost. The alternative is Jeffers in free agency: about four years and $70 million, plus a qualifying offer.
The Yankees aren’t strapped for cash. And the Braves shouldn’t eat any of Murphy’s money here; otherwise they’d just be better off keeping him.

Free agency: two roads

After the trades, the 2027 payroll sits around $223.5 million. That leaves real room, and two holes: an everyday DH, and either a right fielder or a lefty-killing bat for left field.

I’m laying out two versions. Option 1 is what I think Anthopoulos actually does. Option 2 is what I’d do.

Option 1: the realistic AA route

LF platoon bat: Randal Grichuk (or Austin Hays). Either one is good here, and I’d be happy with either. All we need is a right-handed bat who hits lefties.

	Grichuk	Hays
Age (2027)	35	31
vs. LHP OPS (’24/’25/’26)	.914 / .703 / 1.026	.941 / .949 / .956
vs. RHP OPS (’24/’25/’26)	.801 / .623 / .636	.568 / .708 / .452
IL stints, 2024–26	1	7
Est. Price	$3.4M (Spotrac)	$2.5m

Grichuk is my preference. He’s much more durable and isn’t totally useless against right-handers. Hays is the lesser of the two, but he does the one job we need: hitting lefties.

DH: Ty France. A 141 wRC+ and 3.6 fWAR in 2026, he hits both sides (.869 OPS vs. righties, .853 vs. lefties), and he’s a plus first baseman who can spell Olson. MLB Trade Rumors expects a two-year deal at a modest salary. Fair warning: his 2025 was a 92 wRC+ so this could be a flash in the pan.

Option 2: the splash

No Grichuk or Hays. Instead, Seiya Suzuki on a three-year, $72 million deal ($24 million a year). We eat the lost draft picks; because he’ll reject a qualifying offer, signing him costs Atlanta its second- and fifth-highest picks in 2027. This is the signature free-agent move Anthopoulos has never made.

Seiya Suzuki

RF · bats R · 32 in 2027 · free agent

Sign: the splash

Contract My offer: 3 yrs / $72M. Spotrac market value: $22.4M a year

Year	Slash	HR	wRC+	fWAR
2025	—	—	123	—
2026	.270/.368/.473	26	134	4.6
2026 vs. LHP	.309/.429/.537	8	—	—

Suzuki is a true right fielder (111 games there in 2026, with +5 Outs Above Average and an 89.9 mph average throw), and he’s the steadiest bat on the market. Montes then shifts to a part-time role, which is gentler on a 22-year-old with a 30% strikeout rate.

What’s left goes to Joc Pederson in a DH-only role against right-handers: an .834 OPS and 25 homers against righties in 2026 (but just .616 against lefties) but a nice reunion. Profar makes the roster in both versions (sadly).

Where the money landsEstimated 2027 cash payroll ($ millions)

Before the trades$255.5M
After the trades$223.5M
Option 1 (Grichuk + France)$235.0M
Option 2 (Suzuki + Pederson)$257.5M

Source: My estimates from FanGraphs RosterResource and Baseball-Reference contract data, MLBTR arbitration projections and Spotrac market values

Show the data

	2027 payroll ($M)
Before the trades	$255.5M
After the trades	$223.5M
Option 1 (Grichuk + France)	$235.0M
Option 2 (Suzuki + Pederson)	$257.5M

Option 2 means ownership spends slightly more than in 2026 even after shedding Acuña, Strider and Murphy. Which is kinda the whole point. This would be a reset and a fresh look.

The 2027 Braves

The finished product

My 2027 Atlanta Braves

Grichuk platoons in left against lefties, France is the everyday DH, and Montes plays right against righties.

vs. right-handed starters

CDrake Baldwin (L).888 OPS
CFMichael Harris II (L).830
1BMatt Olson (L).823
DHTy France (R).869
RFLazaro Montes (L)rookie
LFMike Yastrzemski (L).696
SSMauricio Dubón (R).743
3BAustin Riley (R).651
2BOzzie Albies (S).657

vs. left-handed starters

LFJurickson Profar (S).835*
CFMichael Harris II (L).780
RFRandal Grichuk (R)1.025
1BMatt Olson (L).824
DHTy France (R).853
2BOzzie Albies (S).727
CJonah Heim (S).855
3BAustin Riley (R).662
SSMauricio Dubón (R).675

Bench Profar, Jarvis, Heim/Baldwin, Montes (vs. LHP)

Suzuki takes right field, Pederson DHs against righties, and Montes moves to a part-time role.

vs. right-handed starters

CDrake Baldwin (L).888 OPS
RFSeiya Suzuki (R).798
1BMatt Olson (L).823
CFMichael Harris II (L).830
DHJoc Pederson (L).834
LFMike Yastrzemski (L).696
SSMauricio Dubón (R).743
3BAustin Riley (R).651
2BOzzie Albies (S).657

vs. left-handed starters

LFJurickson Profar (S).835*
RFSeiya Suzuki (R).965
1BMatt Olson (L).824
CFMichael Harris II (L).780
2BOzzie Albies (S).727
DHLazaro Montes (L)rookie
CJonah Heim (S).855
3BAustin Riley (R).662
SSMauricio Dubón (R).675

Bench Montes, Jarvis, Heim/Baldwin, Pederson (vs. LHP)

Rotation (both options)

Chris Sale
Tyler Mahle
Logan Gilbert
Didier Fuentes · ~130 IP cap
Martín Pérez

Bullpen (both options)

Robert Suarez · closer
Dylan Lee
Fernando Cruz
Reynaldo López
Bryce Elder · long relief
Grant Holmes · swingman
Dylan Dodd
Ray Kerr

Source: Lineup splits from MLB Stats API (2026 OPS unless noted). Profar's numbers are from 2024–25.

* Profar’s splits are from 2024–25; he didn’t play in 2026.

The full reset. Three long-term deals that didn’t pan out go out the door, Baldwin gets his extension, and the rotation gets an actual No. 2 and No. 3. And if ownership wants to prove it’s serious about October, Option 2 finally gives Atlanta the free-agent splash it has never made.